Can the scientists be trusted?  

(A personal view of media hype and its aftermath, by Clive Sutton)

     Just before the Copehagen conference on climate, some 'climate sceptic' campaigners stole emails from the University of East Anglia and used them to impugn the integrity of the scientists who had collated data on changes in land surface temperature.  The media lapped up those innuendos about scientists with bias in the selection or suppression of data.  Other scientists seem to have been taken by surprise, and instead of challenging directly the media-conscious opportunism of the thieves, allowed themselves to be put on the defensive.  Instead of protesting at the maligning of colleagues, they put forward their usual scientific caution, that nothing is firmly sure.  That is of course correct - but it did sound rather weak, and allowed the innuendo to grow. 

Should there be a more vigorous response? ...Or will the quiet cautiousness of scientists be appreciated? 

Note the carefully measured language in the following letter to The Times on 8 December 2009, from seven Fellows of the Royal Society.  (Some parts are highlighted in red).

Sir, With all the furore over the e-mails stolen from the University of East Anglia it is easy to lose sight of the real issues about climate change due to human activities. The evidence that the Earth is warming comes from a large range of sources, including temperatures measured with thermometers and Arctic sea ice area measured from satellites. The global land surface temperature analysis produced at UEA has been an important contribution from the UK to climate science. However, it is not the only analysis; there are several independent ones produced by other institutes worldwide that present very similar evidence of temperature rises over the past century.

The concerns over adding greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide, to the atmosphere are based on sound physics that is neither new nor speculative. There is no doubt that greenhouse gases make our planet warm enough for us to live on it. There is also no doubt that extra greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will warm the Earth. The only question is how much. An important aspect is the persistence of any perturbation to atmospheric carbon dioxide that we make; even if we were to stop emitting carbon dioxide today, levels would remain elevated in the atmosphere for centuries. It is for this reason that early action on emissions is strongly preferable.

As in all science, there are uncertainties, but the evidence that human activity is responsible for most of the climate change over the past 50 years is strong. If there is no global agreement in Copenhagen, or soon after, to limit greenhouse gas emissions, the chances of the global warming by the end of this century being much less than 4C would seem to be very small.

Professor Sir Brian Hoskins, FRS    ......

Professor Tim Palmer, FRS  Professor Keith Shine, FRS  Professor Mike Lockwood, FRS  Professor John Pyle, FRS  Professor Harry Bryden, FRS  Professor John Shepherd, FRS